VfB Stuttgart 3–3 Borussia Dortmund: Result & Stats

VfB Stuttgart

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Borussia Dortmund

4/15/2023

Bundesliga · Round 28Mercedes-Benz-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

VfB Stuttgart44%

×Draw25%

Borussia Dortmund31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfB StuttgartExpected goals in this matchBorussia Dortmund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.29

VfB Stuttgart

1.59

Borussia Dortmund

1.29

VfB Stuttgart creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

1.84

creates per match

1.34

1.24

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.84

Borussia Dortmund

1.34

allows per match

VfB Stuttgart

1.24

Borussia Dortmund

1.34

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

VfB Stuttgart-0.16scores less

Borussia Dortmund+0.43scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfB Stuttgart ↓

Borussia Dortmund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

VfB Stuttgart or draw

69%

VfB Stuttgart or Borussia Dortmund

75%

Draw or Borussia Dortmund

56%

Winning margin

VfB Stuttgart wins by 2+

23%

Borussia Dortmund wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

VfB Stuttgart 1+ goals

80%

VfB Stuttgart 2+ goals

47%

VfB Stuttgart 3+ goals

21%

Borussia Dortmund 1+ goals

72%

Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals

37%

Borussia Dortmund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

VfB Stuttgart (draw refunded)

59%

Borussia Dortmund (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfB Stuttgart at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.24 · 19 matches

Borussia Dortmund away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfB Stuttgart attack 1.84 + Borussia Dortmund defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.59

Borussia Dortmund attack 1.34 + VfB Stuttgart defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

VfB Stuttgart scores more

44%

level

25%

Borussia Dortmund scores more

31%

VfB Stuttgart at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "VfB Stuttgart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff