Veres Rivne 1–0 Inhulets: Result & Stats

Veres Rivne

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Inhulets

S. Vovchenko 74'

6/4/2023

Premier League · Round 30Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Veres Rivne47%

×Draw26%

Inhulets27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Veres RivneExpected goals in this matchInhulets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.08

Veres Rivne

1.52

Inhulets

1.08

Veres Rivne creates 41% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 53 away

1.28

creates per match

0.83

1.34

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Veres Rivne

1.28

Inhulets

0.83

allows per match

Veres Rivne

1.34

Inhulets

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Veres Rivne+0.00on par

Inhulets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veres Rivne ↓

Inhulets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Veres Rivne or draw

73%

Veres Rivne or Inhulets

74%

Draw or Inhulets

53%

Winning margin

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

24%

Inhulets wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

78%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

45%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

20%

Inhulets 1+ goals

66%

Inhulets 2+ goals

29%

Inhulets 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

64%

Inhulets (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veres Rivne at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Inhulets away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.75 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veres Rivne attack 1.28 + Inhulets defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Inhulets attack 0.83 + Veres Rivne defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Veres Rivne scores more

47%

level

26%

Inhulets scores more

27%

Veres Rivne at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Veres Rivne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Hennadii Pasich

46'

Y. Kozyrenko← V. Pavlov

64'

O. Lebedenko← S. Sharay

68'

V. Sydorenko← D. Nağıyev

72'

V. Sharay← H. Pasich

72'

M. Shestakov← M. Gayduchyk

74'

S. Vovchenko↳ V. Kucherov

79'

D. Kravchuk← A. Kukharuk

79'

90+1'

90+6'

90'

90'

V. Dakhnovskyi← A. Bliznichenko

Shots

Statistics

VeresInhulets

Overview

11Total Shots4

9Corners5

9Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots4

4On Target2

7Off Target1

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls9

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Veres Rivne vs Inhulets

Veres Rivne beat Inhulets 1-0 in Premier League on June 4, 2023.

Goals: S. Vovchenko (74').

The match was played at Stadion Avangard in Rivne.

Veres Rivne vs Inhulets — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Veres Rivne vs Inhulets