Inhulets 1–0 Veres Rivne: Result & Stats

Inhulets

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Veres Rivne

A. Sitalo 13'

11/26/2022

Premier League · Round 15Stadion Inhulets

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Inhulets38%

×Draw30%

Veres Rivne32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InhuletsExpected goals in this matchVeres Rivne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.98

Inhulets

1.09

Veres Rivne

0.98

Inhulets creates 11% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 71 away

0.73

creates per match

0.83

1.12

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Inhulets

0.73

Veres Rivne

0.83

allows per match

Inhulets

1.12

Veres Rivne

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inhulets+0.00on par

Veres Rivne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inhulets ↓

Veres Rivne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Inhulets or draw

68%

Inhulets or Veres Rivne

70%

Draw or Veres Rivne

62%

Winning margin

Inhulets wins by 2+

15%

Veres Rivne wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Inhulets 1+ goals

66%

Inhulets 2+ goals

30%

Inhulets 3+ goals

10%

Veres Rivne 1+ goals

62%

Veres Rivne 2+ goals

26%

Veres Rivne 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Inhulets (draw refunded)

54%

Veres Rivne (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inhulets at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

Veres Rivne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.46 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inhulets attack 0.73 + Veres Rivne defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.09

Veres Rivne attack 0.83 + Inhulets defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Inhulets scores more

38%

level

30%

Veres Rivne scores more

32%

Inhulets at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Inhulets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

A. Sitalo

41'

Semen Vovchenko

48'

Oleksandr Kucherenko

54'

A. Korobenko← V. Klymenko

64'

V. Odaryuk← M. Marusych

65'

Volodymyr Odariuk

73'

Yevgen Zaporoshets

73'

V. Kurko← O. Lebedenko

76'

V. Bliznichenko← A. Sitalo

77'

V. Sydorenko← D. Nağıyev

77'

T. Sakiv← A. Kukharuk

79'

M. Sergiychuk← V. Dakhnovskyi

81'

84'

84'

84'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

InhuletsVeres

Overview

49%Possession51%

6Total Shots7

5Corners10

21Fouls21

Shots

6Total Shots7

4On Target4

1Off Target2

1Blocked1

Passing

49%Possession51%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

21Fouls21

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Premier League: Inhulets 1–0 Veres Rivne

Inhulets beat Veres Rivne 1-0 in Premier League on November 26, 2022.

Goals: A. Sitalo (13').

Veres Rivne controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadion Inhulets in Petrove.

Inhulets vs Veres Rivne — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Premier League: Inhulets 1–0 Veres Rivne