Venezuela 1–0 Paraguay: Result & Stats | League #34

Venezuela

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paraguay

S. Rondon 90' (pen)

9/12/2023

League #34 · Group Stage - 2Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Venezuela30%

×Draw32%

Paraguay38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VenezuelaExpected goals in this matchParaguay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.01

Venezuela

0.86

Paraguay

1.01

Paraguay creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

0.60

1.43

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Venezuela

1.33

Paraguay

0.60

allows per match

Venezuela

1.43

Paraguay

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezuela+0.00on par

Paraguay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela ↓

Paraguay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Venezuela or draw

62%

Venezuela or Paraguay

68%

Draw or Paraguay

70%

Winning margin

Venezuela wins by 2+

10%

Paraguay wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Venezuela 1+ goals

58%

Venezuela 2+ goals

21%

Venezuela 3+ goals

6%

Paraguay 1+ goals

64%

Paraguay 2+ goals

27%

Paraguay 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Venezuela (draw refunded)

44%

Paraguay (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Paraguay away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela attack 1.33 + Paraguay defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Paraguay attack 0.60 + Venezuela defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Venezuela scores more

30%

level

32%

Paraguay scores more

38%

Paraguay at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paraguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

R. Romo

Venezuela · G

7.9

Match Events

37'

Samuel Sosa

42'

Richard Ortiz

46'

R. Sanchez← R. Ortiz

54'

S. Cordova← J. Martinez

59'

C. Gonzalez← G. Avalos

65'

José Martínez

67'

J. Savarino← S. Sosa

67'

C. Casseres← J. Martinez

71'

I. Piris← R. Rojas

75'

Miguel Navarro

75'

Carlos Gonzalez

80'

Yangel HerreraGoal cancelled

83'

Gustavo Gómez

85'

Kaku← M. Almiron

90+1'

Yeferson SoteldoPenalty confirmed

90+6'

Jhon Chancellor← Y. Soteldo

90+6'

C. Makoun← M. Navarro

90'

S. RondonPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VenezuelaParaguay

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots18

7Corners5

13Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots18

3On Target5

5Off Target8

3Blocked5

6Inside Box11

5Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

318Total Passes275

223Accurate Passes186

70%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3