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Venezuela vs Paraguay — League #34 2026

Venezuela
Venezuela
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paraguay
Paraguay
G. Giménez 85'
10/14/2020League #34League #34 · Group Stage - 2Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Venezuela30%
×Draw32%
Paraguay38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezuela
0.86
Paraguay
1.01

Paraguay creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

Venezuela
1.33
Paraguay
0.60

allows per match

Venezuela
1.43
Paraguay
0.40

finishing

Venezuela+0.00on par
Paraguay+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela ↓

Paraguay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Venezuela or draw
62%
Venezuela or Paraguay
68%
Draw or Paraguay
70%

Winning margin

Venezuela wins by 2+
10%
Paraguay wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Venezuela 1+ goals
58%
Venezuela 2+ goals
21%
Venezuela 3+ goals
6%
Paraguay 1+ goals
64%
Paraguay 2+ goals
27%
Paraguay 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Venezuela (draw refunded)
44%
Paraguay (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Paraguay away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela attack 1.33 + Paraguay defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Paraguay attack 0.60 + Venezuela defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Venezuela scores more
30%
level
32%
Paraguay scores more
38%

Paraguay at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Paraguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. SilvaParaguayParaguay · G
8.0

Match Events

6'
Andrés Cubas
10'
Darío Lezcano
30'
Yangel Herrera
54'
Rolf Feltscher
67'
Yangel HerreraGoal cancelled
76'
A. Sanabria← D. Lezcano
77'
R. Hernández← R. Rosales
77'
Y. Soteldo← R. Otero
77'
Á. Cardozo Lucena← A. Cubas
83'
Miguel Almirón
84'
J. Murillo← D. Machís
85'
G. Giménez↳ A. Espínola
87'
F. Balbuena← Á. Romero
88'
F. Aristeguieta← S. Córdova
89'
E. Ramírez← C. Cásseres
90+8'
Tomás Rincón
90+2'
R. Rojas← M. Almirón
90+3'
O. Alderete← B. Riveros

Possession

33%Venezuela

Shots

10Venezuela

Pass accuracy

46%Venezuela

Statistics

VenezuelaParaguay
Overview
33%Possession67%
10Total Shots8
6Corners6
17Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots8
2On Target3
5Off Target4
3Blocked1
6Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
33%Possession67%
274Total Passes565
212Accurate Passes502
77%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls14
3Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

League #34: Venezuela 0–1 Paraguay

Paraguay beat Venezuela 1-0 in League #34 on October 14, 2020.

Goals: G. Giménez (85').

Paraguay controlled possession (67%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida in Mérida.