Paraguay 0–1 Venezuela: Result & Stats | League #34

Paraguay

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Venezuela

Yangel Herrera 84'

10/10/2017

League #34 · Round 18Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Paraguay58%

×Draw24%

Venezuela18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ParaguayExpected goals in this matchVenezuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.81

Paraguay

1.69

Venezuela

0.81

Paraguay creates 109% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 21 away

1.33

creates per match

0.62

1.00

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Paraguay

1.33

Venezuela

0.62

allows per match

Paraguay

1.00

Venezuela

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paraguay+0.00on par

Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paraguay ↓

Venezuela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Paraguay or draw

82%

Paraguay or Venezuela

76%

Draw or Venezuela

42%

Winning margin

Paraguay wins by 2+

32%

Venezuela wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Paraguay 1+ goals

82%

Paraguay 2+ goals

50%

Paraguay 3+ goals

24%

Venezuela 1+ goals

56%

Venezuela 2+ goals

19%

Venezuela 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Paraguay (draw refunded)

77%

Venezuela (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paraguay at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Venezuela away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paraguay attack 1.33 + Venezuela defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

Venezuela attack 0.62 + Paraguay defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Paraguay scores more

58%

level

24%

Venezuela scores more

18%

Paraguay at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Paraguay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Óscar Romero

Paraguay · M

8.5

Match Events

25'

33'

39'

47'

56'

Antonio Bareiro← Cecilio Domínguez

56'

Óscar Cardozo← Antonio Sanabria

57'

Yeferson Soteldo← Sergio Córdova

62'

Miguel Samudio← Paulo Da Silva

73'

Óscar Cardozo

77'

Rómulo Otero← Josef Martínez

81'

Júnior Moreno← Jhon Murillo

84'

Yangel Herrera↳ Rómulo Otero

86'

89'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ParaguayVenezuela

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots11

11Corners2

16Fouls21

Shots

16Total Shots11

4On Target5

9Off Target4

3Blocked2

11Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

324Total Passes266

229Accurate Passes188

71%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls21

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

3Offsides2