Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Venezuela vs Brazil — League #34 2026

Venezuela
Venezuela
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Brazil
Brazil
11/14/2024League #34League #34 · Group Stage - 11Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Venezuela27%
×Draw26%
Brazil47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezuela
1.04
Brazil
1.46

Brazil creates 40% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 4 away

creates per match

Venezuela
1.33
Brazil
1.50

allows per match

Venezuela
1.43
Brazil
0.75

finishing

Venezuela+0.00on par
Brazil+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela ↓

Brazil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Venezuela or draw
53%
Venezuela or Brazil
74%
Draw or Brazil
73%

Winning margin

Venezuela wins by 2+
10%
Brazil wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Venezuela 1+ goals
65%
Venezuela 2+ goals
28%
Venezuela 3+ goals
9%
Brazil 1+ goals
77%
Brazil 2+ goals
43%
Brazil 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Venezuela (draw refunded)
37%
Brazil (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Brazil away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela attack 1.33 + Brazil defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Brazil attack 1.50 + Venezuela defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Venezuela scores more
27%
level
26%
Brazil scores more
47%

Brazil at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Brazil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #34: Venezuela 1–1 Brazil

Venezuela and Brazil drew 1-1 in League #34 on November 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín in Maturín.