Brazil 1–1 Venezuela: Result & Stats | League #34

Brazil

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Venezuela

Gabriel 50'

E. Bello 85'

10/13/2023

League #34 · Group Stage - 3Arena Pantanal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brazil71%

×Draw20%

Venezuela9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrazilExpected goals in this matchVenezuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.51

Brazil

1.92

Venezuela

0.51

Brazil creates 276% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

1.80

creates per match

0.62

0.40

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Brazil

1.80

Venezuela

0.62

allows per match

Brazil

0.40

Venezuela

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brazil+0.00on par

Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil ↓

Venezuela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Brazil or draw

91%

Brazil or Venezuela

80%

Draw or Venezuela

29%

Winning margin

Brazil wins by 2+

44%

Venezuela wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Brazil 1+ goals

85%

Brazil 2+ goals

57%

Brazil 3+ goals

30%

Venezuela 1+ goals

40%

Venezuela 2+ goals

9%

Venezuela 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Brazil (draw refunded)

89%

Venezuela (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Venezuela away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil attack 1.80 + Venezuela defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Venezuela attack 0.62 + Brazil defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Brazil scores more

71%

level

20%

Venezuela scores more

9%

Brazil at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Brazil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Neymar

Brazil · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

Yangel Herrera

33'

Tomás Rincón

42'

Y. Couto← Danilo

46'

J. Savarino← S. Cordova

46'

C. Casseres← Y. Herrera

50'

Gabriel↳ Neymar

56'

Richarlison

58'

Y. Soteldo← D. Machis

59'

Gabriel Jesus← Richarlison

67'

J. Moreno← T. Rincon

79'

Andre← Casemiro

79'

M. Cunha← Vinicius Junior

79'

Gerson← Bruno Guimaraes

79'

E. Bello← S. Sosa

83'

André

85'

E. Bello↳ J. Savarino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrazilVenezuela

Overview

70%Possession30%

15Total Shots9

7Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots9

6On Target2

4Off Target5

5Blocked2

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

625Total Passes250

563Accurate Passes192

90%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1