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Brazil vs Venezuela — League #34 2026

Brazil
Brazil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Venezuela
Venezuela
Roberto Firmino 67'
11/14/2020League #34League #34 · Group Stage - 3Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brazil71%
×Draw20%
Venezuela9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazil
1.92
Venezuela
0.51

Brazil creates 276% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 21 away

creates per match

Brazil
1.80
Venezuela
0.62

allows per match

Brazil
0.40
Venezuela
2.05

finishing

Brazil+0.00on par
Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil ↓

Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Brazil or draw
91%
Brazil or Venezuela
80%
Draw or Venezuela
29%

Winning margin

Brazil wins by 2+
44%
Venezuela wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Brazil 1+ goals
85%
Brazil 2+ goals
57%
Brazil 3+ goals
30%
Venezuela 1+ goals
40%
Venezuela 2+ goals
9%
Venezuela 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Brazil (draw refunded)
89%
Venezuela (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Venezuela away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil attack 1.80 + Venezuela defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.92

Venezuela attack 0.62 + Brazil defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Brazil scores more
71%
level
20%
Venezuela scores more
9%

Brazil at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Brazil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
DaniloBrazilBrazil · D
7.7

Match Events

18'
L. Del Pino← R. Feltscher
20'
Cristian Casseres Jr
30'
Douglas Luiz
46'
Lucas Paquetá← Douglas Luiz
54'
Roberto FirminoGoal cancelled
65'
R. Otero← Y. Soteldo
65'
A. González← R. Rosales
67'
Roberto Firmino
76'
Darwin Machís
76'
Éverton← Gabriel Jesus
76'
Pedro← Richarlison
79'
J. Savarino← D. Machís
81'
Tomás Rincón
90+6'
Alex Telles← Renan Lodi

Possession

73%Brazil

Shots

11Brazil

Pass accuracy

56%Brazil

Statistics

BrazilVenezuela
Overview
73%Possession27%
11Total Shots4
7Corners2
13Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots4
3On Target1
6Off Target2
2Blocked1
7Inside Box1
4Outside Box3
Passing
73%Possession27%
623Total Passes223
554Accurate Passes153
89%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Brazil vs Venezuela

Brazil beat Venezuela 1-0 in League #34 on November 14, 2020.

Goals: Roberto Firmino (67').

Brazil controlled possession (73%) and registered 11 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo in São Paulo, São Paulo.