Venezia 1–0 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Venezia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spezia

J. Pohjanpalo 56'

9/15/2023

Serie B · Round 5Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Venezia60%

×Draw20%

Spezia19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeneziaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.13

Venezia

2.14

Spezia

1.13

Venezia creates 89% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.33

creates per match

1.50

0.75

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Venezia

2.33

Spezia

1.50

allows per match

Venezia

0.75

Spezia

1.95

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

Venezia+0.07on par

Spezia-0.50scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Venezia or draw

81%

Venezia or Spezia

80%

Draw or Spezia

40%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+

37%

Spezia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals

88%

Venezia 2+ goals

63%

Venezia 3+ goals

36%

Spezia 1+ goals

68%

Spezia 2+ goals

31%

Spezia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)

76%

Spezia (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.75 · 5 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.95 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 2.33 + Spezia defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.14

Spezia attack 1.50 + Venezia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Venezia scores more

60%

level

20%

Spezia scores more

19%

Venezia at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

G. Altare

Venezia · D

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Giovanni Corradini

20'

Francesco Zampano

46'

M. Kofod Andersen← T. Tessmann

56'

J. Pohjanpalo

60'

M. Ellertsson← N. Lella

60'

C. Gytkjær← N. Pierini

61'

S. Elia← N. Bertola

62'

Francesco Cassata

69'

S. Żurkowski← F. Cassata

69'

R. Kouda← F. Bandinelli

72'

Joel Pohjanpalo

73'

Dimitris Nikolaou

78'

R. Krollis← M. Antonucci

78'

F. Esposito← L. Moro

79'

B. Bjarkason← J. Pohjanpalo

88'

M. Modolo← F. Zampano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeneziaSpezia

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots23

3Corners5

16Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots23

3On Target7

2Off Target4

4Blocked12

6Inside Box11

3Outside Box12

Passing

40%Possession60%

378Total Passes560

284Accurate Passes476

75%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1