Spezia 1–0 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Spezia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Venezia

E. Gyasi 90+4'

4/2/2022

Serie A · Round 31Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Spezia42%

×Draw26%

Venezia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.19

Spezia

1.42

Venezia

1.19

Spezia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 35 away

1.17

creates per match

0.71

1.66

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Spezia

1.17

Venezia

0.71

allows per match

Spezia

1.66

Venezia

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

68%

Spezia or Venezia

74%

Draw or Venezia

58%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

20%

Venezia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

76%

Spezia 2+ goals

41%

Spezia 3+ goals

17%

Venezia 1+ goals

70%

Venezia 2+ goals

33%

Venezia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

57%

Venezia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 58 matches

Venezia away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.66 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.17 + Venezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.42

Venezia attack 0.71 + Spezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spezia scores more

42%

level

26%

Venezia scores more

32%

Spezia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Erlić

Spezia · D

7.7

Match Events

57'

D. Verde← V. Kovalenko

59'

D. Črnigoj← A. Vacca

59'

J. Nsame← D. Johnsen

67'

Salvador Ferrer← A. Reca

67'

R. Manaj← K. Agudelo

73'

S. Kiyine← M. Cuisance

79'

Giulio Maggiore

83'

Nani← M. Aramu

85'

90+5'

90+3'

90'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaVenezia

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots14

5Corners2

15Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target3

2Off Target6

4Blocked5

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box9

Passing

52%Possession48%

400Total Passes379

303Accurate Passes292

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

3Offsides0