Spezia 2–1 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Venezia

A. Reca 61'

F. Esposito 56'

J. Idzes 17'

5/10/2024

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Spezia38%

×Draw28%

Venezia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.16

Spezia

1.24

Venezia

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 113 away

1.40

creates per match

1.25

1.06

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Spezia

1.40

Venezia

1.25

allows per match

Spezia

1.06

Venezia

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

66%

Spezia or Venezia

72%

Draw or Venezia

62%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

17%

Venezia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

71%

Spezia 2+ goals

35%

Spezia 3+ goals

13%

Venezia 1+ goals

69%

Venezia 2+ goals

32%

Venezia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

53%

Venezia (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.06 · 93 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.08 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.40 + Venezia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Venezia attack 1.25 + Spezia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spezia scores more

38%

level

28%

Venezia scores more

34%

Spezia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Joronen

Venezia · G

8.9

Match Events

17'

J. Idzes↳ M. Kofod Andersen

46'

B. Bjarkason← M. Kofod Andersen

49'

Filippo Bandinelli

49'

Giuseppe Di Serio

56'

F. Esposito↳ G. Di Serio

61'

A. Reca↳ S. Elia

62'

N. Pierini← F. Zampano

66'

Diego Falcinelli

66'

D. Falcinelli← F. Esposito

76'

F. Cassata← F. Bandinelli

76'

L. Vignali← A. Reca

76'

M. Olivieri← A. Candela

76'

G. Altare← M. Svoboda

79'

P. Wiśniewski← N. Bertola

84'

M. Ellertsson← J. Idzes

86'

Mikael Ellertsson

90+2'

Luca Vignali

90+1'

Giorgio Altare

90+1'

Christian GytkjærCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaVenezia

Overview

46%Possession54%

27Total Shots10

11Corners2

15Fouls13

Shots

27Total Shots10

11On Target3

5Off Target6

11Blocked1

16Inside Box7

11Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

322Total Passes394

259Accurate Passes320

80%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

15Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1

Serie B: Spezia 2–1 Venezia

Spezia beat Venezia 2-1 in Serie B on May 10, 2024.

Goals: J. Idzes (17'), F. Esposito (56'), A. Reca (61').

Venezia controlled possession (54%) and registered 10 shots to 27.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.

Spezia vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Spezia 2–1 Venezia