Venezia 1–2 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Venezia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Spezia

P. Ceccaroni 59'

M. Bourabia 90+4'

S. Bastoni 13'

9/19/2021

Serie A · Round 4Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Venezia36%

×Draw28%

Spezia36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeneziaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.21

Venezia

1.20

Spezia

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.05

creates per match

1.29

1.12

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Venezia

1.05

Spezia

1.29

allows per match

Venezia

1.12

Spezia

1.34

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Venezia-0.05on par

Spezia-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Venezia or draw

64%

Venezia or Spezia

72%

Draw or Spezia

64%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+

15%

Spezia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals

70%

Venezia 2+ goals

34%

Venezia 3+ goals

12%

Spezia 1+ goals

70%

Spezia 2+ goals

34%

Spezia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)

50%

Spezia (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.12 · 10 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.34 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 1.05 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Spezia attack 1.29 + Venezia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Venezia scores more

36%

level

28%

Spezia scores more

36%

Venezia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Bourabia

Spezia · M

7.6

Match Events

13'

S. Bastoni↳ G. Maggiore

23'

P. Hristov← M. Erlić

26'

Pasquale Mazzocchi

47'

Salvador Ferrer

55'

D. Peretz← D. Črnigoj

57'

Antonio Junior Vacca

59'

P. Ceccaroni↳ G. Busio

62'

M. Aramu← D. Okereke

63'

F. Forte← T. Henry

68'

Gianluca Busio

71'

R. Manaj← J. Sala

76'

D. Heymans← A. Vacca

76'

S. Kiyine← G. Busio

77'

S. Podgoreanu← J. Antiste

78'

M. Bourabia← G. Maggiore

78'

M'Bala Nzola← D. Verde

84'

Daan Heymans

90+4'

M. Bourabia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeneziaSpezia

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots12

3Corners10

13Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots12

3On Target3

6Off Target6

5Blocked3

7Inside Box4

7Outside Box8

Passing

45%Possession55%

365Total Passes462

285Accurate Passes356

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Venezia vs Spezia

Spezia beat Venezia 2-1 in Serie A on September 19, 2021.

Goals: S. Bastoni (13'), P. Ceccaroni (59'), M. Bourabia (90+4').

Spezia controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venezia.

Venezia vs Spezia — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Venezia vs Spezia