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Venezia vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Venezia
Venezia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
S. Bentivoglio 45+2'
8/25/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 1Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Venezia57%
×Draw21%
Spezia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezia
2.16
Spezia
1.28

Venezia creates 69% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Venezia
2.42
Spezia
1.71

allows per match

Venezia
0.86
Spezia
1.90

finishing

Venezia+0.25scores more
Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Venezia or draw
78%
Venezia or Spezia
79%
Draw or Spezia
43%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+
35%
Spezia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals
88%
Venezia 2+ goals
63%
Venezia 3+ goals
36%
Spezia 1+ goals
72%
Spezia 2+ goals
37%
Spezia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)
72%
Spezia (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.86 · 9 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 2.42 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.16

Spezia attack 1.71 + Venezia defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Venezia scores more
57%
level
21%
Spezia scores more
22%

Venezia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
M. Coppolaro← M. Bruscagin
37'
Matteo Ricci
45+2'
S. Bentivoglio↳ M. Falzerano
55'
Maurizio Domizzi
60'
Claudio Terzi
64'
M. Crimi← L. Mora
64'
N. Pierini← E. Gyasi
75'
Geijo← G. Vrioni
76'
R. Crivello← T. Augello
87'
F. Cernuto← G. Zampano
90'
Filippo De Col

Possession

56%Venezia

Shots

6Venezia

Statistics

VeneziaSpezia
Overview
56%Possession44%
6Total Shots6
6Corners4
11Fouls23
Shots
6Total Shots6
3On Target1
3Off Target5
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls23
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Serie B: Venezia 1–0 Spezia

Venezia beat Spezia 1-0 in Serie B on August 25, 2018.

Goals: S. Bentivoglio (45+2').

Venezia controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venice.