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Venezia vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Venezia
Venezia
FT
3 – 4
HT: 3 – 0
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
12/5/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 16Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Venezia35%
×Draw27%
Hellas Verona39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezia
1.24
Hellas Verona
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Venezia
0.91
Hellas Verona
1.02

allows per match

Venezia
1.62
Hellas Verona
1.57

finishing

Venezia+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Venezia or draw
61%
Venezia or Hellas Verona
73%
Draw or Hellas Verona
65%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+
15%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals
71%
Venezia 2+ goals
35%
Venezia 3+ goals
13%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
73%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
38%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)
47%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.62 · 34 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 0.91 + Hellas Verona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Hellas Verona attack 1.02 + Venezia defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Venezia scores more
35%
level
27%
Hellas Verona scores more
39%

Hellas Verona at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Venezia vs Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona beat Venezia 4-3 in Serie A on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venezia.