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Hellas Verona vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Venezia
Venezia
3/3/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 27Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hellas Verona40%
×Draw26%
Venezia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Verona
1.37
Venezia
1.22

Hellas Verona creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 118 away

creates per match

Hellas Verona
1.67
Venezia
1.22

allows per match

Hellas Verona
1.22
Venezia
1.07

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par
Venezia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw
67%
Hellas Verona or Venezia
74%
Draw or Venezia
60%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+
19%
Venezia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals
75%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
40%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
16%
Venezia 1+ goals
70%
Venezia 2+ goals
34%
Venezia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
55%
Venezia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.67 + Venezia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Venezia attack 1.22 + Hellas Verona defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hellas Verona scores more
40%
level
26%
Venezia scores more
33%

Hellas Verona at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hellas Verona vs Venezia

Hellas Verona beat Venezia 1-0 in Serie B on March 3, 2019.

The match was played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Verona.