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Venezia vs Hellas Verona — Serie B 2018

Venezia
Venezia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
10/21/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 8Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Venezia46%
×Draw26%
Hellas Verona28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezia
1.47
Hellas Verona
1.09

Venezia creates 35% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 18 away

creates per match

Venezia
1.60
Hellas Verona
1.06

allows per match

Venezia
1.12
Hellas Verona
1.33

finishing

Venezia+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Venezia or draw
72%
Venezia or Hellas Verona
74%
Draw or Hellas Verona
54%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+
23%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals
77%
Venezia 2+ goals
43%
Venezia 3+ goals
18%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
66%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
30%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)
62%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.12 · 117 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 1.60 + Hellas Verona defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Hellas Verona attack 1.06 + Venezia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Venezia scores more
46%
level
26%
Hellas Verona scores more
28%

Venezia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Venezia vs Hellas Verona

Venezia and Hellas Verona drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venice.