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Venezia vs Empoli — Serie B 2018

Venezia
Venezia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Empoli
Empoli
I. Doumbia 87'
A. Adorante 50'
4/25/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Venezia62%
×Draw21%
Empoli17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venezia
1.98
Empoli
0.93

Venezia creates 113% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Venezia
2.33
Empoli
1.11

allows per match

Venezia
0.75
Empoli
1.63

finishing

Venezia+0.07on par
Empoli-0.01on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Empoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Venezia or draw
83%
Venezia or Empoli
79%
Draw or Empoli
38%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+
37%
Empoli wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals
86%
Venezia 2+ goals
59%
Venezia 3+ goals
31%
Empoli 1+ goals
61%
Empoli 2+ goals
24%
Empoli 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)
78%
Empoli (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.75 · 5 matches

Empoli away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.63 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 2.33 + Empoli defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.98

Empoli attack 1.11 + Venezia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Venezia scores more
62%
level
21%
Empoli scores more
17%

Venezia at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

71
K. PerezVeneziaVenezia · M
8.3

Match Events

50'
A. Adorante↳ B. Franjic
56'
Matteo Lovato
72'
Stiven ShpendiPenalty cancelled
77'
S. Elia← R. Ilie
77'
M. Nasti← S. Shpendi
79'
M. Compagnon← R. Haps
79'
R. Sagrado← J. Yeboah
84'
A. Casas← A. Adorante
84'
B. Moruzzi← T. Ebuehi
85'
D. Degli Innocenti← S. Romagnoli
87'
I. Doumbia↳ M. Compagnon
90+4'
Salvatore Elia
90'
M. Dagasso← K. Perez
90'
S. Korac← J. Schingtienne
90'
E. Saporiti← G. Yepes

Possession

78%Venezia

Shots

18Venezia

Pass accuracy

60%Venezia

Statistics

VeneziaEmpoli
Overview
78%Possession22%
18Total Shots9
1.61Expected Goals (xG)0.70
9Corners6
10Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots9
6On Target3
5Off Target3
7Blocked3
14Inside Box6
4Outside Box3
Passing
78%Possession22%
555Total Passes146
491Accurate Passes85
88%Pass Accuracy58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
-0.58Goals Prevented-0.58
Discipline
10Fouls15
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Venezia vs Empoli

Venezia beat Empoli 2-0 in Serie B on April 25, 2026.

Goals: A. Adorante (50'), I. Doumbia (87').

Venezia controlled possession (78%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venice.