Empoli 1–1 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Empoli

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Venezia

S. Shpendi 42'

A. Adorante 34'

10/19/2025

Serie B · Round 8Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Empoli39%

×Draw27%

Venezia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.19

Empoli

1.30

Venezia

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.50

creates per match

1.55

0.82

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Empoli

1.50

Venezia

1.55

allows per match

Empoli

0.82

Venezia

1.10

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Empoli-0.12scores less

Venezia-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

66%

Empoli or Venezia

73%

Draw or Venezia

61%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

18%

Venezia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

73%

Empoli 2+ goals

37%

Empoli 3+ goals

14%

Venezia 1+ goals

70%

Venezia 2+ goals

33%

Venezia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

54%

Venezia (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.82 · 8 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.10 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.50 + Venezia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

Venezia attack 1.55 + Empoli defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Empoli scores more

39%

level

27%

Venezia scores more

34%

Empoli at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Fulignati

Empoli · G

7.9

Match Events

34'

A. Adorante↳ A. Hainaut

42'

S. Shpendi↳ R. Ilie

53'

Rareș Ilie

55'

D. Degli Innocenti← R. Ilie

55'

P. Pellegri← J. Ceesay

58'

J. Yeboah← A. Adorante

60'

Pietro Pellegri

65'

T. Ebuehi← S. Elia

65'

E. Saporiti← S. Shpendi

72'

D. Fila← A. Casas

72'

R. Sagrado← A. Hainaut

72'

A. Pietrelli← B. Bjarkason

76'

N. Haas← A. Ghion

84'

B. Franjic← M. Sverko

85'

Nosa Edward Obaretin

90+4'

Bartol Franjić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliVenezia

Overview

31%Possession69%

9Total Shots16

5Corners6

9Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots16

7On Target4

1Off Target8

1Blocked4

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

31%Possession69%

235Total Passes553

162Accurate Passes488

69%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls16

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1