Empoli 1–2 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie A

Empoli

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Venezia

N. Bajrami 89' (pen)

D. Okereke 68'

T. Henry 13'

9/11/2021

Serie A · Round 3Stadio Carlo Castellani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Empoli51%

×Draw26%

Venezia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmpoliExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.93

Empoli

1.53

Venezia

0.93

Empoli creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.06

creates per match

0.76

1.10

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Empoli

1.06

Venezia

0.76

allows per match

Empoli

1.10

Venezia

2.01

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Empoli-0.56scores less

Venezia+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Empoli ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Empoli or draw

77%

Empoli or Venezia

74%

Draw or Venezia

49%

Winning margin

Empoli wins by 2+

26%

Venezia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Empoli 1+ goals

78%

Empoli 2+ goals

45%

Empoli 3+ goals

20%

Venezia 1+ goals

61%

Venezia 2+ goals

24%

Venezia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Empoli (draw refunded)

69%

Venezia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Empoli at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

Venezia away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.01 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Empoli attack 1.06 + Venezia defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.53

Venezia attack 0.76 + Empoli defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Empoli scores more

51%

level

26%

Venezia scores more

23%

Empoli at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Empoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

T. Henry

Venezia · F

8.0

Match Events

7'

13'

15'

33'

34'

44'

45+3'

46'

F. Di Francesco← F. Bandinelli

46'

L. Tonelli← A. Ismajli

46'

N. Mäenpää← L. Lezzerini

46'

C. Molinaro← D. Schnegg

54'

D. Črnigoj← L. Fiordilino

62'

A. Pinamonti← L. Mancuso

62'

L. Štulac← S. Ricci

67'

D. Okereke← A. Vacca

68'

D. Okereke↳ T. Henry

83'

L. Henderson← P. Stojanović

86'

Daan Heymans

88'

Niki Mäenpää

89'

N. BajramiPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmpoliVenezia

Overview

68%Possession32%

22Total Shots10

8Corners2

12Fouls21

Shots

22Total Shots10

6On Target3

8Off Target6

8Blocked1

12Inside Box9

10Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

532Total Passes256

449Accurate Passes185

84%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls21

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides1