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Vendsyssel FF vs Skive — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Skive
Skive
B. Clemmensen 72'
M. Holt 65'
8/15/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 3Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vendsyssel FF49%
×Draw24%
Skive27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.69
Skive
1.21

Vendsyssel FF creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 84 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
2.00
Skive
1.35

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.06
Skive
1.38

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
Skive+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

Skive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
73%
Vendsyssel FF or Skive
76%
Draw or Skive
51%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
26%
Skive wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
82%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
50%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
24%
Skive 1+ goals
70%
Skive 2+ goals
34%
Skive 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
64%
Skive (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Skive away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 2.00 + Skive defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Skive attack 1.35 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
49%
level
24%
Skive scores more
27%

Vendsyssel FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
M. Holt
72'
B. Clemmensen
Vendsyssel
Skive
M. Kristensen
Manager: M. Kristensen
A. Jensen
Manager: A. Jensen

2nd Division - Group 1: Vendsyssel FF 2–0 Skive

Vendsyssel FF beat Skive 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 15, 2025.

Goals: M. Holt (65'), B. Clemmensen (72').

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjorring.