Skive 2–1 Vendsyssel FF: Result & Stats

Skive

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vendsyssel FF

M. Lassen 81'

T. Santos 68'

L. Steffensen 63'

5/6/2021

1. Division · Relegation Round - 6Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Skive38%

×Draw25%

Vendsyssel FF37%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkiveExpected goals in this matchVendsyssel FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.42

Skive

1.45

Vendsyssel FF

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 99 away

1.19

creates per match

1.13

1.71

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Skive

1.19

Vendsyssel FF

1.13

allows per match

Skive

1.71

Vendsyssel FF

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skive+0.00on par

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Vendsyssel FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Skive or draw

63%

Skive or Vendsyssel FF

75%

Draw or Vendsyssel FF

62%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+

18%

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals

77%

Skive 2+ goals

42%

Skive 3+ goals

18%

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals

76%

Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals

41%

Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)

51%

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.19 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.13 + Skive defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Skive scores more

38%

level

25%

Vendsyssel FF scores more

37%

Skive at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Skive will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

42'

63'

67'

67'

67'

S. Denius← M. Jespersen

68'

T. Santos

75'

S. Henriksen← G. Berthier

81'

M. Lassen

83'

N. Dohn← J. Pedersen

83'

V. Postolachi← T. Damsgaard

90+3'

L. Henriksen← T. Santos

Skive

Vendsyssel

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Thomsen

67'▲M. Agger←▼F. Nielsen

67'▲M. Lassen←▼L. Møberg

67'▲S. Denius←▼M. Jespersen

83'▲N. Dohn←▼J. Pedersen

90+3'▲L. Henriksen←▼T. Santos

Skive substitutes

AggerLassenDeniusDohnHenriksenNørgaardHaurits

Manager: M. Schjønberg

75'▲S. Henriksen←▼G. Berthier

83'▲V. Postolachi←▼T. Damsgaard

Vendsyssel FF substitutes

HenriksenPostolachiKaltoftEhmannJärvelaidDongKnudsen

1. Division: Skive 2–1 Vendsyssel FF

Skive beat Vendsyssel FF 2-1 in 1. Division on May 6, 2021.

Goals: L. Steffensen (63'), T. Santos (68'), M. Lassen (81').

The match was played at Hancock Arena in Skive.

Skive vs Vendsyssel FF — 1. Division 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Division: Skive 2–1 Vendsyssel FF