Skive 1–2 Vendsyssel FF: Result & Stats

Skive

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vendsyssel FF

T. Pedersen 74'

S. Simpson 62'

M. Munck 35'

10/17/2025

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12Hancock Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Skive32%

×Draw26%

Vendsyssel FF42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SkiveExpected goals in this matchVendsyssel FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.45

Skive

1.22

Vendsyssel FF

1.45

Vendsyssel FF creates 19% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 16 away

1.19

creates per match

1.56

1.34

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Skive

1.19

Vendsyssel FF

1.56

allows per match

Skive

1.34

Vendsyssel FF

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Skive+0.00on par

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Skive ↓

Vendsyssel FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Skive or draw

58%

Skive or Vendsyssel FF

74%

Draw or Vendsyssel FF

68%

Winning margin

Skive wins by 2+

13%

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Skive 1+ goals

70%

Skive 2+ goals

34%

Skive 3+ goals

12%

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals

77%

Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals

42%

Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Skive (draw refunded)

43%

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Skive at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 80 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Skive attack 1.19 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.22

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.56 + Skive defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Skive scores more

32%

level

26%

Vendsyssel FF scores more

42%

Vendsyssel FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

M. Munck

62'

S. Simpson

74'

T. Pedersen

Skive

Vendsyssel

Manager: Anders Jensen

Manager: M. Kristensen