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Vendsyssel FF vs Jammerbugt — 1. Division 2018

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
5/8/20221. Division1. Division · Relegation Round - 6Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vendsyssel FF55%
×Draw23%
Jammerbugt21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.78
Jammerbugt
1.01

Vendsyssel FF creates 76% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 16 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.31
Jammerbugt
0.88

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.14
Jammerbugt
2.25

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
Jammerbugt+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

Jammerbugt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
79%
Vendsyssel FF or Jammerbugt
77%
Draw or Jammerbugt
45%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
31%
Jammerbugt wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
83%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
53%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
26%
Jammerbugt 1+ goals
64%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
27%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
72%
Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Jammerbugt away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.31 + Jammerbugt defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.78

Jammerbugt attack 0.88 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
55%
level
23%
Jammerbugt scores more
21%

Vendsyssel FF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Vendsyssel FF 4–1 Jammerbugt

Vendsyssel FF beat Jammerbugt 4-1 in 1. Division on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.