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Jammerbugt vs Vendsyssel FF — 1. Division 2018

Jammerbugt
Jammerbugt
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
3/12/20221. Division1. Division · Round 21Jetsmark Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Jammerbugt31%
×Draw23%
Vendsyssel FF46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jammerbugt
1.42
Vendsyssel FF
1.76

Vendsyssel FF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 100 away

creates per match

Jammerbugt
1.13
Vendsyssel FF
1.15

allows per match

Jammerbugt
2.38
Vendsyssel FF
1.70

finishing

Jammerbugt+0.00on par
Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jammerbugt ↓

Vendsyssel FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jammerbugt or draw
54%
Jammerbugt or Vendsyssel FF
77%
Draw or Vendsyssel FF
69%

Winning margin

Jammerbugt wins by 2+
14%
Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Jammerbugt 1+ goals
76%
Jammerbugt 2+ goals
41%
Jammerbugt 3+ goals
17%
Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
83%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
52%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Jammerbugt (draw refunded)
41%
Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jammerbugt at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jammerbugt attack 1.13 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.42

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.15 + Jammerbugt defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jammerbugt scores more
31%
level
23%
Vendsyssel FF scores more
46%

Vendsyssel FF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jammerbugt vs Vendsyssel FF

Vendsyssel FF beat Jammerbugt 1-0 in 1. Division on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Jetsmark Stadion in Pandrup.