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Vendsyssel FF vs Fremad Amager — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
S. Simpson 60'
10/24/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 13Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vendsyssel FF52%
×Draw24%
Fremad Amager24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.74
Fremad Amager
1.11

Vendsyssel FF creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 48 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
2.00
Fremad Amager
1.17

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.06
Fremad Amager
1.48

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

Fremad Amager →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
76%
Vendsyssel FF or Fremad Amager
76%
Draw or Fremad Amager
48%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
29%
Fremad Amager wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
82%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
52%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
25%
Fremad Amager 1+ goals
67%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
30%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
68%
Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 2.00 + Fremad Amager defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Fremad Amager attack 1.17 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
52%
level
24%
Fremad Amager scores more
24%

Vendsyssel FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'
60'
S. Simpson
Vendsyssel
Fremad
M. Kristensen
Manager: M. Kristensen
C. Iversen
Manager: C. Iversen

Match Recap: Vendsyssel FF vs Fremad Amager

Vendsyssel FF beat Fremad Amager 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 24, 2025.

Goals: S. Simpson (60').

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.