Fremad Amager 1–4 Vendsyssel FF: Result & Stats

Fremad Amager

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Vendsyssel FF

L. Ravn-Haren 43'

T. Oude Kotte 63'

P. Bizoza 40'

T. Konaté 28'

M. Greve 23'

5/28/2022

1. Division · Relegation Round - 10Sundby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Fremad Amager47%

×Draw24%

Vendsyssel FF29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fremad AmagerExpected goals in this matchVendsyssel FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.22

Fremad Amager

1.63

Vendsyssel FF

1.22

Fremad Amager creates 34% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 99 away

1.55

creates per match

1.13

1.31

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Fremad Amager

1.55

Vendsyssel FF

1.13

allows per match

Fremad Amager

1.31

Vendsyssel FF

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

Vendsyssel FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw

71%

Fremad Amager or Vendsyssel FF

76%

Draw or Vendsyssel FF

53%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+

24%

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals

80%

Fremad Amager 2+ goals

48%

Fremad Amager 3+ goals

22%

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals

70%

Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals

34%

Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)

62%

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.55 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.13 + Fremad Amager defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fremad Amager scores more

47%

level

24%

Vendsyssel FF scores more

29%

Fremad Amager at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

M. Greve

28'

T. Konaté↳ L. Jensen

40'

P. Bizoza↳ T. Konaté

43'

L. Ravn-Haren↳ G. Marcussen

54'

M. Gundelach← J. Johansson

63'

T. Oude Kotte↳ T. Konaté

66'

L. Steffensen← A. Søjberg

66'

Z. Hyltoft← P. Bizoza

71'

T. Christiansen← P. Armenakas

72'

M. Wohlgemuth← L. Jensen

72'

W. Abou Ali← R. Frantsen

74'

C. Allen← E. Staugaard

84'

P. Jul Nielsen← H. Meister

88'

M. Gundelach

Fremad

Vendsyssel

13

Sørensen

5

⚽

Greve

22

▼

Frantsen

4

⚽

Kotte

12

Damsgaard

8

Heyden

66

⚽

▼

Bizoza

10

⚽A

Konaté

7

A

▼

Jensen

19

▼

Armenakas

21

▼

1

22

3

14

4

▼

Staugaard

16

Basse

7

⚽

Ravn-Hare

21

Boysen

8

A

Marcussen

11

▼

Johansson

23

▼

Meister

Manager: P. Løvenkrands

54'▲M. Gundelach←▼J. Johansson

74'▲C. Allen←▼E. Staugaard

84'▲P. Jul Nielsen←▼H. Meister

Fremad Amager substitutes

2Gundelach17Allen15Nielsen20Ravn26Jørgensen24Funch18Kundby

Manager: H. Pedersen

66'▲L. Steffensen←▼A. Søjberg

66'▲Z. Hyltoft←▼P. Bizoza

71'▲T. Christiansen←▼P. Armenakas

72'▲M. Wohlgemuth←▼L. Jensen

72'▲W. Abou Ali←▼R. Frantsen

Vendsyssel FF substitutes

9Steffensen14Hyltoft18Christiansen6Wohlgemuth77Ali16Vistisen23Pedersen