Vendsyssel FF 1–2 Fremad Amager: Result & Stats

Vendsyssel FF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Fremad Amager

L. Steffensen 13'

L. Ravn-Haren 17'

C. Boateng 7'

8/6/2022

1. Division · Round 3Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Vendsyssel FF49%

×Draw25%

Fremad Amager26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vendsyssel FFExpected goals in this matchFremad Amager

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.07

Vendsyssel FF

1.56

Fremad Amager

1.07

Vendsyssel FF creates 46% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 81 away

1.30

creates per match

1.02

1.13

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF

1.30

Fremad Amager

1.02

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF

1.13

Fremad Amager

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Fremad Amager+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

Fremad Amager →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw

74%

Vendsyssel FF or Fremad Amager

75%

Draw or Fremad Amager

51%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+

25%

Fremad Amager wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals

79%

Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals

46%

Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals

21%

Fremad Amager 1+ goals

66%

Fremad Amager 2+ goals

29%

Fremad Amager 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)

65%

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.13 · 99 matches

Fremad Amager away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.83 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.30 + Fremad Amager defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fremad Amager attack 1.02 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more

49%

level

25%

Fremad Amager scores more

26%

Vendsyssel FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

C. Boateng↳ M. Gundelach

9'

T. Christiansen

13'

L. Steffensen↳ P. Armenakas

17'

L. Ravn-Haren↳ C. Boateng

25'

H. Bonnesen← J. Haahr

26'

W. Abou Ali

46'

E. Nielsen← T. Christiansen

46'

P. Jul Nielsen← H. Meister

51'

P. Armenakas

59'

T. Konaté← W. Abou Ali

61'

J. Johansson← L. Ravn-Haren

64'

D. Montiel← Z. Hyltoft

69'

C. Allen← M. Gundelach

69'

D. Boysen← C. Boateng

79'

R. Schwartz← E. Nielsen

Vendsyssel

Fremad

1

Larsen

22

Lumb

3

Kanstrup

2

A

▼

Gundelach

5

▼

Haahr

8

Marcussen

16

Basse

7

⚽

▼

Ravn-Hare

6

Palm

45

⚽A

▼

Boateng

23

▼

13

5

22

4

18

▼

Christian

14

▼

Hyltoft

66

Bizoza

7

Jensen

19

A

Armenakas

77

▼

Ali

9

⚽

Steffense

Manager: H. Pedersen

46'▲E. Nielsen←▼T. Christiansen

59'▲T. Konaté←▼W. Abou Ali

64'▲D. Montiel←▼Z. Hyltoft

79'▲R. Schwartz←▼E. Nielsen

Vendsyssel FF substitutes

17Nielsen10Konaté20Montiel11Schwartz21Søjberg3Jakobsen1Jonsson31Kjellerup8Heyden

Manager: M. Hemmingsen

25'▲H. Bonnesen←▼J. Haahr

46'▲P. Jul Nielsen←▼H. Meister

61'▲J. Johansson←▼L. Ravn-Haren

69'▲C. Allen←▼M. Gundelach

69'▲D. Boysen←▼C. Boateng

Fremad Amager substitutes

14Bonnesen15Nielsen11Johansson17Allen21Boysen24Funch10Bay18Medina12Lejbowicz