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Velez Sarsfield vs Independ. Rivadavia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia
M. Santos 76'
F. Pizzini 68'
Elías Gómez 29'
B. Romero 19'
8/31/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio José Amalfitani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Velez Sarsfield47%
×Draw29%
Independ. Rivadavia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velez Sarsfield
1.25
Independ. Rivadavia
0.80

Velez Sarsfield creates 56% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield
1.44
Independ. Rivadavia
0.80

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield
0.79
Independ. Rivadavia
1.07

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par
Independ. Rivadavia+0.15scores more

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw
76%
Velez Sarsfield or Independ. Rivadavia
71%
Draw or Independ. Rivadavia
53%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+
21%
Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals
71%
Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals
36%
Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals
13%
Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals
55%
Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals
19%
Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)
66%
Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.79 · 16 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 1.44 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.80 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more
47%
level
29%
Independ. Rivadavia scores more
24%

Velez Sarsfield at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
F. PizziniVelez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield · M
8.3

Match Events

19'
B. Romero↳ C. Aquino
23'
Luciano Abecasis
29'
Elías Gómez↳ C. Ordoñez
31'
Mauricio Asenjo
40'
M. Santos← C. Aquino
46'
Fernando Romero← V. Ramis
46'
F. Sartori← M. Asenjo
58'
Franco Romero
67'
Bruno Bianchi
68'
F. Pizzini↳ C. Ordoñez
73'
Francisco PizziniPenalty confirmed
76'
M. Santos
77'
G. Ríos← L. Ríos
77'
F. Milo← T. Ostchega
78'
L. Sequeira← Ezequiel Ham
81'
M. Pellegrini← B. Romero
81'
M. Carrizo← F. Pizzini
81'
Á. Montoro← T. Fernández
86'
Jalil Elías← A. Bouzat

Possession

55%Velez

Shots

16Velez

Pass accuracy

51%Velez

Statistics

VelezIndepend.
Overview
55%Possession45%
16Total Shots10
1.82Expected Goals (xG)0.74
3Corners3
7Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots10
6On Target3
7Off Target6
3Blocked1
10Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
55%Possession45%
393Total Passes318
316Accurate Passes244
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
-1.55Goals Prevented-1.55
Discipline
7Fouls10
0Yellow Cards4

Liga Profesional Argentina: Velez Sarsfield 4–0 Independ. Rivadavia

Velez Sarsfield beat Independ. Rivadavia 4-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 31, 2024.

Goals: B. Romero (19'), Elías Gómez (29'), F. Pizzini (68'), M. Santos (76').

Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio José Amalfitani in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.