Velez Sarsfield 1–0 Independ. Rivadavia

Velez Sarsfield

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Independ. Rivadavia

A. Osorio 85'

6/9/2022

Copa Argentina · Round of 32Estadio Provincial Juan Gilberto Funes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Velez Sarsfield62%

×Draw23%

Independ. Rivadavia15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Velez SarsfieldExpected goals in this matchIndepend. Rivadavia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.70

Velez Sarsfield

1.72

Independ. Rivadavia

0.70

Velez Sarsfield creates 146% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

2.18

creates per match

0.75

0.64

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Velez Sarsfield

2.18

Independ. Rivadavia

0.75

allows per match

Velez Sarsfield

0.64

Independ. Rivadavia

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Velez Sarsfield+0.00on par

Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velez Sarsfield ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Velez Sarsfield or draw

85%

Velez Sarsfield or Independ. Rivadavia

77%

Draw or Independ. Rivadavia

38%

Winning margin

Velez Sarsfield wins by 2+

35%

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Velez Sarsfield 1+ goals

82%

Velez Sarsfield 2+ goals

51%

Velez Sarsfield 3+ goals

25%

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

50%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

16%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Velez Sarsfield (draw refunded)

81%

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velez Sarsfield at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velez Sarsfield attack 2.18 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.72

Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.75 + Velez Sarsfield defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Velez Sarsfield scores more

62%

level

23%

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

15%

Velez Sarsfield at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Velez Sarsfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

V. Gomez

57'

S. Cáseres← J. Florentín

57'

60'

60'

64'

68'

71'

80'

F. Galván← L. Ambrogio

81'

N. Garayalde← M. Perrone

81'

A. Bouzat← L. Orellano

85'

A. Osorio↳ L. Pratto

90+3'

P. Palacio

Velez

Independ.

1

4

2

7

3

6

8

▼

Rubén

9

▼

Coronel

5

Turraca

11

▼

Ambrogio

10

▼

Ramos

30

Hoyos

6

Santos

24

▼

Guidara

5

Ortega

31

Gómez

19

▼

Soñora

7

▼

Florentín

16

▼

Perrone

12

A

Pratto

11

Janson

10

▼

Orellano

Manager: A. Medina

57'▲S. Cáseres←▼J. Florentín

57'▲A. Osorio←▼J. Soñora

68'▲L. Jara←▼T. Guidara

81'▲N. Garayalde←▼M. Perrone

81'▲A. Bouzat←▼L. Orellano

Velez Sarsfield substitutes

35Cáseres39Osorio29Jara36Garayalde23Bouzat34Fernández28Brizuela1Borgogno3Insúa42Prestianni15Mulet9Sosa

Manager: G. Gómez

60'▲S. Navarro←▼H. Rubén

60'▲F. Luna←▼F. Coronel

64'▲P. Palacio←▼E. Ramos

80'▲F. Galván←▼L. Ambrogio

Independ. Rivadavia substitutes

16Navarro19Luna21Palacio18Galván12Cirrincione13Suraci14Castro20Tonetto22Atencio15Sosa17Verdugo23Torres