Independ. Rivadavia vs Velez Sarsfield — League #1032 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Independ. Rivadavia45%
Velez Sarsfield26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Independ. Rivadavia creates 42% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No58
- Yes42
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Independ. Rivadavia ↓
Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches
Velez Sarsfield away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.75 + Velez Sarsfield defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.25
Velez Sarsfield attack 0.75 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Independ. Rivadavia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
3 previous meetings · small sample
River Plate
Rosario Central
Racing Club
Huracan
Lanus
Talleres Cordoba
Banfield
Union Santa Fe
Independiente
Argentinos JRS
Defensa Y Justicia
Instituto Cordoba
Newells Old Boys
Barracas Central
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes L.P.Velez Sarsfield
Atletico Tucuman
Belgrano Cordoba
Sarmiento Junin
Deportivo Riestra
PlatenseIndepend. Rivadavia
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Gimnasia L.P.
San Lorenzo
TigreIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Independ. Rivadavia host Velez Sarsfield on Monday, 15 April 2024 at 23:00. The match is part of the League #1032 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Velez Sarsfield
Velez Sarsfield beat Independ. Rivadavia 1-0 in League #1032 on April 15, 2024.
Goals: F. Pizzini (41').
Velez Sarsfield controlled possession (52%) and registered 22 shots to 10.
The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza.