Vejle 2–0 FC Fredericia: Result & Stats | Superliga

Vejle

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Fredericia

M. Duelund 90'

T. Bach 19'

5/10/2026

Superliga · Relegation Group - 31Vejle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Vejle54%

×Draw22%

FC Fredericia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VejleExpected goals in this matchFC Fredericia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.25

Vejle

1.96

FC Fredericia

1.25

Vejle creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

1.37

creates per match

1.27

1.23

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Vejle

1.37

FC Fredericia

1.27

allows per match

Vejle

1.23

FC Fredericia

2.55

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Vejle-0.18scores less

FC Fredericia+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejle ↓

FC Fredericia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vejle or draw

76%

Vejle or FC Fredericia

78%

Draw or FC Fredericia

46%

Winning margin

Vejle wins by 2+

31%

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vejle 1+ goals

86%

Vejle 2+ goals

58%

Vejle 3+ goals

31%

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

71%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

36%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Vejle (draw refunded)

69%

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejle at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejle attack 1.37 + FC Fredericia defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.96

FC Fredericia attack 1.27 + Vejle defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vejle scores more

54%

level

22%

FC Fredericia scores more

24%

Vejle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vejle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

T. H. Jakobsen

Vejle · G

8.2

Match Events

13'

J. Kudsk← A. Nygaard

19'

T. Bach↳ C. Gammelgaard

43'

46'

59'

60'

60'

B. Edjeodji← A. Hjulsager

63'

G. Marcussen← J. Lindekilde

63'

O. Buch← E. Simonsen

81'

M. Ladefoged← S. Johannesen

83'

Bismark Edjeodji

83'

M. Enggaard← C. Gammelgaard

84'

Lasse Nielsen

85'

Friday Etim

90+1'

Andreas Pyndt

90+2'

M. Jensen← T. Gundelund

90'

M. Duelund↳ L. Flo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VejleFC

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots12

2.50Expected Goals (xG)0.85

2Corners7

11Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots12

7On Target3

7Off Target5

2Blocked4

10Inside Box6

6Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

325Total Passes431

243Accurate Passes344

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

0.18Goals Prevented0.18

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1