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Vejle vs FC Fredericia — Superliga 2026

Vejle
Vejle
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
C. Gammelgaard 76'
W. Faghir 55'
W. Madsen 34'
F. Etim 30'
J. Lindekilde 19'
2/9/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Round 19Vejle Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Vejle54%
×Draw22%
FC Fredericia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vejle
1.96
FC Fredericia
1.25

Vejle creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Vejle
1.37
FC Fredericia
1.27

allows per match

Vejle
1.23
FC Fredericia
2.55

finishing

Vejle-0.18scores less
FC Fredericia+0.18scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vejle ↓

FC Fredericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Vejle or draw
76%
Vejle or FC Fredericia
78%
Draw or FC Fredericia
46%

Winning margin

Vejle wins by 2+
31%
FC Fredericia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vejle 1+ goals
86%
Vejle 2+ goals
58%
Vejle 3+ goals
31%
FC Fredericia 1+ goals
71%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
36%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vejle (draw refunded)
69%
FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vejle at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 16 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vejle attack 1.37 + FC Fredericia defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.96

FC Fredericia attack 1.27 + Vejle defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vejle scores more
54%
level
22%
FC Fredericia scores more
24%

Vejle at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vejle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
C. GammelgaardVejleVejle · M
8.2

Match Events

19'
J. Lindekilde
22'
Andrew Hjulsager
30'
F. Etim↳ J. Jessen
34'
W. Madsen↳ J. Jessen
45+4'
Adam Nygaard
46'
M. Enggaard← A. Jacobsen
55'
W. Faghir↳ T. Bach
61'
Gustav Marcussen
62'
L. Flo← V. Lund
70'
S. Johannesen← F. Etim
70'
A. Pyndt← G. Marcussen
71'
J. Kudsk← A. Nygaard
76'
A. Camara← A. Hjulsager
76'
C. Gammelgaard
79'
K. Pedersen← J. Lindekilde
90'
Lasse Nielsen

Possession

65%Vejle

Shots

21Vejle

Pass accuracy

53%Vejle

Statistics

VejleFC
Overview
65%Possession35%
21Total Shots8
2.96Expected Goals (xG)2.61
10Corners4
13Fouls8
Shots
21Total Shots8
8On Target6
8Off Target1
5Blocked1
15Inside Box6
6Outside Box2
Passing
65%Possession35%
491Total Passes279
378Accurate Passes189
77%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
1.36Goals Prevented1.36
Discipline
13Fouls8
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Superliga: Vejle 2–3 FC Fredericia

FC Fredericia beat Vejle 3-2 in Superliga on February 9, 2026.

Goals: J. Lindekilde (19'), F. Etim (30'), W. Madsen (34'), W. Faghir (55'), C. Gammelgaard (76').

Vejle controlled possession (65%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Vejle Stadion in Vejle.