FC Fredericia 2–2 Vejle: Result & Stats | Superliga

FC Fredericia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Vejle

F. Etim 58'

F. Winther 24'

M. Duelund 52'

C. Gammelgaard 48'

4/13/2026

Superliga · Relegation Group - 26Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

FC Fredericia48%

×Draw24%

Vejle29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC FredericiaExpected goals in this matchVejle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.30

FC Fredericia

1.74

Vejle

1.30

FC Fredericia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.44

creates per match

0.87

1.74

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

FC Fredericia

1.44

Vejle

0.87

allows per match

FC Fredericia

1.74

Vejle

2.04

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

FC Fredericia-0.11scores less

Vejle-0.18scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

Vejle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw

71%

FC Fredericia or Vejle

76%

Draw or Vejle

52%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

26%

Vejle wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

82%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

52%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

25%

Vejle 1+ goals

73%

Vejle 2+ goals

37%

Vejle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

62%

Vejle (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.74 · 12 matches

Vejle away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.04 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.44 + Vejle defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.74

Vejle attack 0.87 + FC Fredericia defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Fredericia scores more

48%

level

24%

Vejle scores more

29%

FC Fredericia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

F. Winther

FC Fredericia · M

8.2

Match Events

24'

F. Winther

29'

Bismark Edjeodji

46'

C. Gammelgaard← B. Edjeodji

48'

C. Gammelgaard↳ T. Gundelund

52'

M. Duelund↳ A. Hjulsager

55'

E. Dall← W. Madsen

58'

F. Etim↳ G. Marcussen

62'

M. Vestergaard← V. Lund

62'

A. Camara← A. Hjulsager

69'

Svenn Crone

74'

W. Faghir← M. Duelund

78'

M. Opondo← D. F. Kristjansson

78'

A. Dahl← J. Jessen

83'

J. Kudsk← S. Crone

83'

O. Buch← S. Johannesen

85'

G. Tabatadze← C. Sorensen

90+5'

Eskild Dall

90+4'

Friday Etim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCVejle

Overview

46%Possession54%

18Total Shots12

1.81Expected Goals (xG)1.19

9Corners5

10Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots12

7On Target6

6Off Target3

5Blocked3

13Inside Box10

5Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

367Total Passes435

287Accurate Passes356

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

0.32Goals Prevented0.32

Discipline

10Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1