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Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF — Allsvenskan 2020

Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
M. Baggesen 54'
M. Ladefoged 8' (pen)
7/12/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 12Hitachi Energy Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vasteras SK FK46%
×Draw24%
Degerfors IF30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasteras SK FK
1.68
Degerfors IF
1.33

Vasteras SK FK creates 26% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 65 away

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.29
Degerfors IF
1.08

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK
1.57
Degerfors IF
2.06

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par
Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

Degerfors IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw
70%
Vasteras SK FK or Degerfors IF
76%
Draw or Degerfors IF
54%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
24%
Degerfors IF wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
81%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
50%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
24%
Degerfors IF 1+ goals
74%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
38%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
60%
Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.06 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.29 + Degerfors IF defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Degerfors IF attack 1.08 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more
46%
level
24%
Degerfors IF scores more
30%

Vasteras SK FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
Marcus BaggesenVasteras SK FKVasteras SK FK · M
8.3

Match Events

6'
M. Igonen
8'
M. LadefogedPenalty
33'
A. Taranis
33'
M. Baggesen
38'
M. Ladefoged
39'
M. Diagne
39'
L. Fritzson
40'
D. Sundgren
46'
G. Yiriyon← D. Sundgren
54'
M. Baggesen↳ I. Lushaku
55'
N. Girmai
56'
R. Dzabic← E. Barsoum
63'
V. Wernersson← M. Keita
64'
J. Karlsson← M. Baggesen
67'
M. Diaby← S. Diatara
67'
D. Vukojevic← L. Fritzson
69'
R. Dzabic
80'
M. Hellisdal← M. Ladefoged
80'
J. Magnusson← I. Lushaku
80'
O. Leonardsson← K. Karlsson
90'
M. Abdi← M. Diagne

Possession

42%Vasteras

Shots

8Vasteras

Pass accuracy

49%Vasteras

Statistics

VasterasDegerfors
Overview
42%Possession58%
8Total Shots12
1Corners6
15Fouls21
Shots
8Total Shots12
2On Target1
4Off Target5
2Blocked6
7Inside Box7
1Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
349Total Passes466
274Accurate Passes384
79%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls21
3Yellow Cards6
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF

Vasteras SK FK beat Degerfors IF 2-0 in Allsvenskan on July 12, 2026.

Goals: M. Ladefoged (8' pen), M. Baggesen (54').

Degerfors IF controlled possession (58%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Hitachi Energy Arena in Vasteras.