Vasteras SK FK 0–1 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Vasteras SK FK

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Degerfors IF

N. Girmai 55'

2/14/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Vasteras SK FK55%

×Draw24%

Degerfors IF21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasteras SK FKExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.91

Vasteras SK FK

1.66

Degerfors IF

0.91

Vasteras SK FK creates 82% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.57

creates per match

1.25

0.57

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Vasteras SK FK

1.57

Degerfors IF

1.25

allows per match

Vasteras SK FK

0.57

Degerfors IF

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasteras SK FK ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vasteras SK FK or draw

79%

Vasteras SK FK or Degerfors IF

76%

Draw or Degerfors IF

45%

Winning margin

Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+

30%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals

81%

Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals

49%

Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals

23%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

60%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

23%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)

73%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasteras SK FK at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.57 + Degerfors IF defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Degerfors IF attack 1.25 + Vasteras SK FK defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vasteras SK FK scores more

55%

level

24%

Degerfors IF scores more

21%

Vasteras SK FK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vasteras SK FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

N. Girmai

Vasteras

Degerfors

38

6

5

28

16

21

8

22

⚽

10

17

24

34

3

4

5

8

10

11

17

19

21

18

Manager: Kalle Karlsson

Vasteras SK FK substitutes

FagerstromBernardiniMagnussonSeidouvyLjungqvistTagessonHansasDialloAbdiHellisdalAbadid

Manager: William Lundin

Degerfors IF substitutes

ForsellDiabyOhlssonVukojevicLindellYawMoroBerissonBarsoumSalifuSene

Match Recap: Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF

Degerfors IF beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.

Goals: N. Girmai (55').

Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Vasteras SK FK vs Degerfors IF