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Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK — Friendlies Clubs 2021

Degerfors IF
Degerfors IF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vasteras SK FK
Vasteras SK FK
E. Lindell 90+1'
D. Vukojevic 65' (pen), 9'
I. Diabate 52'
7/15/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stora Valla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Degerfors IF58%
×Draw21%
Vasteras SK FK20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Degerfors IF
2.00
Vasteras SK FK
1.08

Degerfors IF creates 85% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Degerfors IF
2.00
Vasteras SK FK
1.00

allows per match

Degerfors IF
1.17
Vasteras SK FK
2.00

finishing

Degerfors IF+0.00on par
Vasteras SK FK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Degerfors IF ↓

Vasteras SK FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Degerfors IF or draw
80%
Degerfors IF or Vasteras SK FK
79%
Draw or Vasteras SK FK
42%

Winning margin

Degerfors IF wins by 2+
35%
Vasteras SK FK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Degerfors IF 1+ goals
86%
Degerfors IF 2+ goals
59%
Degerfors IF 3+ goals
32%
Vasteras SK FK 1+ goals
66%
Vasteras SK FK 2+ goals
29%
Vasteras SK FK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)
74%
Vasteras SK FK (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Degerfors IF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Degerfors IF attack 2.00 + Vasteras SK FK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Vasteras SK FK attack 1.00 + Degerfors IF defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Degerfors IF scores more
58%
level
21%
Vasteras SK FK scores more
20%

Degerfors IF at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
D. Vukojevic
52'
I. Diabate
65'
D. VukojevicPenalty
90+1'
E. Lindell

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK

Degerfors IF beat Vasteras SK FK 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2024.

Goals: D. Vukojevic (9', 65' pen), I. Diabate (52'), E. Lindell (90+1').

The match was played at Stora Valla in Degerfors.