Vasco DA Gama 0–1 Palmeiras: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Palmeiras

J. López 26'

9/22/2024

Serie A · Round 27Arena BRB Mané Garrincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Vasco DA Gama45%

×Draw27%

Palmeiras29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Vasco DA Gama

1.42

Palmeiras

1.08

Vasco DA Gama creates 31% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

1.78

creates per match

1.06

1.10

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.78

Palmeiras

1.06

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.10

Palmeiras

1.06

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

+0.61scores more than expected

finishing

Vasco DA Gama-0.30scores less

Palmeiras+0.61scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Palmeiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

71%

Vasco DA Gama or Palmeiras

73%

Draw or Palmeiras

55%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

22%

Palmeiras wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

76%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

41%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

17%

Palmeiras 1+ goals

66%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

29%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

61%

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.78 + Palmeiras defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.42

Palmeiras attack 1.06 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

45%

level

27%

Palmeiras scores more

29%

Vasco DA Gama at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Felipe Anderson

Palmeiras · M

7.7

Match Events

26'

J. López

46'

E. Rodríguez← Rayan

58'

Philippe Coutinho← D. Payet

58'

J. Rodríguez← Paulo Henrique

66'

Emerson RodríguezPenalty cancelled

68'

Pablo Vegetti

82'

Mateus Carvalho← J. Sforza

82'

Rony← J. López

84'

Fabinho← A. Moreno

84'

Zé Rafael← Maurício

87'

M. Dominguez← Hugo Moura

90+7'

Weverton

90+6'

Zé Rafael

90+4'

Lázaro← Raphael Veiga

90+4'

Rômulo← Felipe Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoPalmeiras

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots14

0.26Expected Goals (xG)1.50

5Corners5

8Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target3

6Off Target8

1Blocked3

3Inside Box8

7Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

414Total Passes350

328Accurate Passes269

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.83Goals Prevented0.83

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 0–1 Palmeiras

Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 in Serie A on September 22, 2024.

Goals: J. López (26').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha in Brasília, Distrito Federal.

Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras — Serie A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 0–1 Palmeiras