Palmeiras 2–0 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Palmeiras

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

Rony 56'

J. Piquerez 26'

6/14/2024

Serie A · Round 8Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Palmeiras51%

×Draw27%

Vasco DA Gama22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalmeirasExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.83

Palmeiras

1.44

Vasco DA Gama

0.83

Palmeiras creates 73% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.52

creates per match

0.98

0.68

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Palmeiras

1.52

Vasco DA Gama

0.98

allows per match

Palmeiras

0.68

Vasco DA Gama

1.35

+0.55scores more than expected

finishing

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

Palmeiras+0.55scores more

Vasco DA Gama+0.24scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Palmeiras or draw

78%

Palmeiras or Vasco DA Gama

73%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

49%

Winning margin

Palmeiras wins by 2+

26%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Palmeiras 1+ goals

76%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

42%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

18%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

56%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

20%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

70%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.68 · 14 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.35 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras attack 1.52 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.98 + Palmeiras defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Palmeiras scores more

51%

level

27%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

22%

Palmeiras at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Piquerez

Palmeiras · D

8.5

Match Events

26'

J. Piquerez↳ Estêvão

37'

J. Sforza← R. Rojas

46'

Adson← David

51'

Juan Sforza

56'

Rony↳ Estêvão

58'

Rayan← Rossi

70'

Pablo VegettiGoal cancelled

72'

Rony

75'

Mayke← Lázaro

76'

Caio Paulista← Estêvão

80'

Zé RafaelGoal cancelled

82'

Paulo Henrique← Lucas Piton

82'

Victor Luís← J. Rodríguez

85'

Gabriel Menino← Raphael Veiga

88'

Hugo Moura← Zé Gabriel

90+3'

Victor Luis

90+1'

Fabinho← Zé Rafael

90+1'

J. López← Rony

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalmeirasVasco

Overview

57%Possession43%

28Total Shots9

2.36Expected Goals (xG)0.24

10Corners6

10Fouls14

Shots

28Total Shots9

6On Target2

13Off Target6

9Blocked1

14Inside Box5

14Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

397Total Passes298

330Accurate Passes224

83%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

-0.40Goals Prevented-0.40

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Serie A: Palmeiras 2–0 Vasco DA Gama

Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 2-0 in Serie A on June 14, 2024.

Goals: J. Piquerez (26'), Rony (56').

Palmeiras controlled possession (57%) and registered 28 shots to 9.

The match was played at Allianz Parque in São Paulo, São Paulo.

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Palmeiras 2–0 Vasco DA Gama