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Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2025

Palmeiras
Palmeiras
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
Vitor Roque 24'
J. Lopez 18', 6'
10/1/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 26Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Palmeiras51%
×Draw27%
Vasco DA Gama22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras
1.44
Vasco DA Gama
0.83

Palmeiras creates 73% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

creates per match

Palmeiras
1.52
Vasco DA Gama
0.98

allows per match

Palmeiras
0.68
Vasco DA Gama
1.35

finishing

Palmeiras+0.55scores more
Vasco DA Gama+0.24scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Palmeiras or draw
78%
Palmeiras or Vasco DA Gama
73%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
49%

Winning margin

Palmeiras wins by 2+
26%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Palmeiras 1+ goals
76%
Palmeiras 2+ goals
42%
Palmeiras 3+ goals
18%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
56%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
20%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras (draw refunded)
70%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.68 · 14 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.35 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras attack 1.52 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.98 + Palmeiras defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Palmeiras scores more
51%
level
27%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
22%

Palmeiras at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
J. LopezPalmeirasPalmeiras · F
9.0

Match Events

6'
J. Lopez
18'
J. Lopez
24'
Vitor Roque↳ J. Lopez
61'
Paulo Henrique
61'
C. A. Gomez← N. Moreira
66'
F. Torres← Felipe Anderson
66'
R. Sosa← Raphael Veiga
67'
David← P. Vegetti
76'
Bruno Rodrigues← Vitor Roque
76'
Mauricio← J. Lopez
79'
Mateus Carvalho← Lucas Oliveira
81'
Aníbal Moreno
82'
Allan← A. Pereira

Possession

44%Palmeiras

Shots

11Palmeiras

Pass accuracy

49%Palmeiras

Statistics

PalmeirasVasco
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots9
2.00Expected Goals (xG)0.71
1Corners3
7Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots9
6On Target3
3Off Target5
2Blocked1
7Inside Box3
4Outside Box6
Passing
44%Possession56%
397Total Passes503
328Accurate Passes437
83%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-0.36Goals Prevented-0.36
Discipline
7Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Serie A: Palmeiras 3–0 Vasco DA Gama

Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 3-0 in Serie A on October 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Lopez (6', 18'), Vitor Roque (24').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Allianz Parque in Sao Paulo.