Vasco DA Gama 4–1 Nautico Recife: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Nautico Recife

Figueiredo 88'

Andrey Santos 47'

Eguinaldo 39'

Raniel 34' (pen)

Éverton Brito 72'

9/16/2022

Serie B · Round 30Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Vasco DA Gama55%

×Draw25%

Nautico Recife19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchNautico Recife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.82

Vasco DA Gama

1.58

Nautico Recife

0.82

Vasco DA Gama creates 93% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 77 away

1.58

creates per match

0.74

0.91

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.58

Nautico Recife

0.74

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

0.91

Nautico Recife

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Nautico Recife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

81%

Vasco DA Gama or Nautico Recife

75%

Draw or Nautico Recife

45%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

29%

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

79%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

47%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

21%

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

56%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

20%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

74%

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 43 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.58 + Nautico Recife defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nautico Recife attack 0.74 + Vasco DA Gama defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

55%

level

25%

Nautico Recife scores more

19%

Vasco DA Gama at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Yuri Lara

Vasco DA Gama · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

NenêPenalty awarded

31'

Thiago Rodrigues

33'

Mauricio

33'

Jean

34'

RanielPenalty

39'

Eguinaldo↳ Paulo Victor

47'

Andrey Santos

65'

Anilson← Maurício

67'

Danilo Boza

67'

J. Quintero← Danilo Boza

69'

Luís Felipe← Jobson

69'

Pedro Vitor← Junior Tavares

69'

Julio← Thomaz

72'

Éverton Brito↳ Jean Carlos

75'

Léo Matos

75'

Gabriel Pec← Marlon Gomes

75'

79'

80'

80'

85'

Kieza← Geuvânio

88'

Figueiredo↳ Yuri Lara

90+2'

Victor Ferraz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VascoNautico

Overview

37%Possession63%

13Total Shots15

3Corners8

12Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots15

5On Target7

6Off Target4

2Blocked4

8Inside Box9

5Outside Box6

Passing

37%Possession63%

246Total Passes419

160Accurate Passes332

65%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0