Nautico Recife 2–3 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Vasco DA Gama

Jean Carlos 90+10' (pen)

Thassio 69'

Nenê 77'

Andrey Santos 43'

Figueiredo 28'

6/7/2022

Serie B · Round 11Estádio Jóse do Rego Maciel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Nautico Recife45%

×Draw27%

Vasco DA Gama28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.02

Nautico Recife

1.36

Vasco DA Gama

1.02

Nautico Recife creates 33% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 43 away

1.33

creates per match

0.84

1.20

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.33

Vasco DA Gama

0.84

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Vasco DA Gama

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

72%

Nautico Recife or Vasco DA Gama

73%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

55%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

21%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

74%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

39%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

16%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

64%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

27%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

61%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 75 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.33 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.84 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

45%

level

27%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

28%

Nautico Recife at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Nenê

Vasco DA Gama · F

8.5

Match Events

23'

28'

29'

43'

45+1'

46'

46'

Amarildo← Ewandro

51'

Robinho

58'

Victor Ferraz

63'

GetúlioGoal cancelled

63'

69'

71'

74'

74'

Weverton← Gabriel Dias

77'

Nenê↳ Figueiredo

79'

Matheus Barbosa← Andrey Santos

79'

Zé Vitor← Getúlio

89'

Bruno Nazário← Gabriel Pec

89'

Isaque← Nenê

90+8'

Jean CarlosPenalty awarded

90+9'

Figueiredo

90+10'

Jean CarlosPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoVasco

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots5

10Corners4

12Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots5

5On Target5

7Off Target0

6Blocked0

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

356Total Passes401

281Accurate Passes315

79%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides5

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama beat Nautico Recife 3-2 in Serie B on June 7, 2022.

Goals: Figueiredo (28'), Andrey Santos (43'), Thassio (69'), Nenê (77'), Jean Carlos (90+10' pen).

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estádio Jóse do Rego Maciel in Recife, Pernambuco.

Nautico Recife vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs Vasco DA Gama