Nautico Recife 3–1 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

Roni 90+2', 25'

Bérgson 46'

Mádson 84'

10/1/2016

Serie B · Round 28Arena De Pernambuco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Nautico Recife45%

×Draw27%

Vasco DA Gama28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.02

Nautico Recife

1.36

Vasco DA Gama

1.02

Nautico Recife creates 33% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 43 away

1.33

creates per match

0.84

1.20

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.33

Vasco DA Gama

0.84

allows per match

Nautico Recife

1.20

Vasco DA Gama

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

72%

Nautico Recife or Vasco DA Gama

73%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

55%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

21%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

74%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

39%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

16%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

64%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

27%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

61%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 75 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.33 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.84 + Nautico Recife defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

45%

level

27%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

28%

Nautico Recife at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

Roni↳ Marco Antônio

46'

Alan Cardoso← Jorge Henrique

46'

Bérgson↳ Roni

59'

Thalles← J. Dos Santos

64'

Samuel Negretti← Marco Antônio

77'

Renan Oliveira← Vinicius

77'

Éder Luís← Júlio César

83'

Yuri Mamute← Bérgson

84'

Mádson↳ Andrezinho

90+2'

Roni

Nautico

Vasco

▼

⚽

▼

A

▼

A

▼

Antônio

▼

Vinicius

Souza

⚽

▼

Bérgson

⚽2A

Roni

Manager: Givanildo Oliveira

64'▲Samuel Negretti←▼Marco Antônio

77'▲Renan Oliveira←▼Vinicius

83'▲Yuri Mamute←▼Bérgson

Nautico Recife substitutes

NegrettiOliveiraMamutePereiraAdanHaynerNemHenriqueRodolphoEsquerdinha

Manager: Jorginho

46'▲Alan Cardoso←▼Jorge Henrique

59'▲Thalles←▼J. Dos Santos

77'▲Éder Luís←▼Júlio César

Vasco DA Gama substitutes

CardosoThallesLuísAndreyGabrielLeandrãoOliveiraMarquesJomarJordiHenriqueGallo