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Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC — Serie A 2026

Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
P. Vegetti 80', 47'
N. Moreira 3'
5/17/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 9Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vasco DA Gama47%
×Draw24%
Fortaleza EC28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco DA Gama
1.64
Fortaleza EC
1.21

Vasco DA Gama creates 36% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 23 away

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.45
Fortaleza EC
1.09

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.33
Fortaleza EC
1.83

finishing

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par
Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Fortaleza EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw
72%
Vasco DA Gama or Fortaleza EC
76%
Draw or Fortaleza EC
53%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
25%
Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
81%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
49%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
23%
Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
70%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
34%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
63%
Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.45 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Fortaleza EC attack 1.09 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more
47%
level
24%
Fortaleza EC scores more
28%

Vasco DA Gama at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
P. VegettiVasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama · F
8.6

Match Events

3'
N. Moreira↳ Hugo Moura
39'
Nuno Moreira
46'
P. Fernandez← Lucas Sasha
46'
Emmanuel Martinez← Matheus Rossetto
47'
P. Vegetti↳ Paulo Henrique
51'
Luiz Gustavo
58'
Emmanuel Martínez
58'
Marinho← E. Mancuso
68'
Philippe Coutinho
68'
Marinho
76'
Deyverson← Yago Pikachu
80'
P. Vegetti↳ Lucas Piton
88'
Mateus Carvalho← Rayan
88'
Adson← N. Moreira
88'
L. Augusto← Hugo Moura
90+4'
M. Lemos← Tche Tche
90+4'
Paulinho Paula← Luiz Gustavo
90'
K. Andrade← Breno Lopes

Possession

50%Vasco

Shots

14Vasco

Pass accuracy

51%Vasco

Statistics

VascoFortaleza
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots10
1.60Expected Goals (xG)0.87
4Corners7
12Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots10
7On Target3
4Off Target6
3Blocked1
7Inside Box4
7Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
410Total Passes393
355Accurate Passes325
87%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
-0.56Goals Prevented-0.56
Discipline
12Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards1
3Offsides1

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 3–0 Fortaleza EC

Vasco DA Gama beat Fortaleza EC 3-0 in Serie A on May 17, 2025.

Goals: N. Moreira (3'), P. Vegetti (47', 80').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio São Januário in Rio de Janeiro.