Fortaleza EC 0–2 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Fortaleza EC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vasco DA Gama

David 82'

Rayan 45'

10/16/2025

Serie A · Round 28Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Fortaleza EC49%

×Draw25%

Vasco DA Gama26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortaleza ECExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.13

Fortaleza EC

1.63

Vasco DA Gama

1.13

Fortaleza EC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 43 away

1.52

creates per match

1.09

1.16

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Fortaleza EC

1.52

Vasco DA Gama

1.09

allows per match

Fortaleza EC

1.16

Vasco DA Gama

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.00on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw

74%

Fortaleza EC or Vasco DA Gama

75%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

51%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

26%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

80%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

48%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

22%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

68%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

31%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

65%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.52 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.09 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more

49%

level

25%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

26%

Fortaleza EC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Leo Jardim

Vasco DA Gama · G

8.7

Match Events

34'

34'

40'

45+2'

45'

Rayan↳ Coutinho

46'

Matheus Rossetto← Rodrigo

48'

B. Kuscevic

60'

A. Bareiro← J. Lucero

61'

J. Rodriguez← C. A. Gomez

61'

Matheus Franca← Coutinho

61'

David← N. Moreira

70'

A. Bareiro

72'

Deyverson← G. Avila

72'

Moises← Y. Guzman

77'

Victor Luis← Lucas Piton

78'

Deyverson

79'

Yago Pikachu← T. Pochettino

82'

David

88'

Mateus Carvalho← Tche Tche

90+5'

90+5'

90+6'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortalezaVasco

Overview

56%Possession44%

27Total Shots6

1.91Expected Goals (xG)0.49

10Corners2

27Fouls6

Shots

27Total Shots6

9On Target3

12Off Target2

6Blocked1

19Inside Box5

8Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

429Total Passes370

360Accurate Passes302

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

2.35Goals Prevented2.35

Discipline

27Fouls6

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama

Vasco DA Gama beat Fortaleza EC 2-0 in Serie A on October 16, 2025.

Goals: Rayan (45'), David (82').

Fortaleza EC controlled possession (56%) and registered 27 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza.

Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama