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Fortaleza EC vs Vasco DA Gama — Serie A 2026

Fortaleza EC
Fortaleza EC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
Renato Kayzer 90+2'
Breno Lopes 78'
E. Martínez 13'
11/9/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 33Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Fortaleza EC49%
×Draw27%
Vasco DA Gama24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortaleza EC
1.41
Vasco DA Gama
0.91

Fortaleza EC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fortaleza EC
1.41
Vasco DA Gama
0.90

allows per match

Fortaleza EC
0.92
Vasco DA Gama
1.41

finishing

Fortaleza EC+0.59scores more
Vasco DA Gama+0.17scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortaleza EC ↓

Vasco DA Gama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fortaleza EC or draw
76%
Fortaleza EC or Vasco DA Gama
73%
Draw or Vasco DA Gama
51%

Winning margin

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+
24%
Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals
76%
Fortaleza EC 2+ goals
41%
Fortaleza EC 3+ goals
17%
Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
60%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
23%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)
67%
Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortaleza EC at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.92 · 6 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.41 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortaleza EC attack 1.41 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vasco DA Gama attack 0.90 + Fortaleza EC defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortaleza EC scores more
49%
level
27%
Vasco DA Gama scores more
24%

Fortaleza EC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortaleza EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
E. MartínezFortaleza ECFortaleza EC · M
8.5

Match Events

13'
E. Martínez↳ Tinga
46'
E. Brítez← Tinga
46'
Rayan← E. Rodríguez
46'
Jair← Mateus Carvalho
58'
Jair
65'
Breno Lopes← Moisés
72'
J. Sforza← Hugo Moura
73'
Philippe Coutinho← J. Rodríguez
78'
Breno Lopes↳ E. Martínez
80'
T. Pochettino← Hércules
80'
Yago Pikachu← Marinho
82'
Matheus Rossetto
84'
Alex Teixeira← P. Galdames
88'
Renato Kayzer← J. Lucero
90+2'
Renato Kayzer↳ T. Pochettino

Possession

39%Fortaleza

Shots

14Fortaleza

Pass accuracy

48%Fortaleza

Statistics

FortalezaVasco
Overview
39%Possession61%
14Total Shots4
2.05Expected Goals (xG)0.19
5Corners1
13Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots4
8On Target2
3Off Target2
3Blocked0
11Inside Box1
3Outside Box3
Passing
39%Possession61%
331Total Passes520
264Accurate Passes450
80%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
0.54Goals Prevented0.54
Discipline
13Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Serie A: Fortaleza EC 3–0 Vasco DA Gama

Fortaleza EC beat Vasco DA Gama 3-0 in Serie A on November 9, 2024.

Goals: E. Martínez (13'), Breno Lopes (78'), Renato Kayzer (90+2').

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (61%) and registered 4 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza, Ceará.