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Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro — Serie A 2025

Vasco DA Gama
Vasco DA Gama
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
6/16/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 9Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Vasco DA Gama48%
×Draw26%
Cruzeiro26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vasco DA Gama
1.46
Cruzeiro
0.99

Vasco DA Gama creates 47% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.78
Cruzeiro
0.88

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama
1.10
Cruzeiro
1.15

finishing

Vasco DA Gama-0.30scores less
Cruzeiro-0.16scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw
74%
Vasco DA Gama or Cruzeiro
74%
Draw or Cruzeiro
52%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+
24%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals
77%
Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals
43%
Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals
18%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
63%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
26%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)
65%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.15 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.78 + Cruzeiro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cruzeiro attack 0.88 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more
48%
level
26%
Cruzeiro scores more
26%

Vasco DA Gama at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98
AndersonCruzeiroCruzeiro · G
7.9

Match Events

38'
Pablo Vegetti
46'
Arthur Viana← Rafa Silva
56'
João Pedro← Gabriel Veron
62'
Lucas Romero
65'
David← Rossi
65'
J. Rodríguez← Paulo Henrique
68'
Arthur Viana
71'
Japa← L. Romero
71'
Vitinho← Lucas Silva
76'
Serginho← João Pedro
79'
Ramiro
82'
William
87'
Mateus Carvalho← P. Galdames
87'
Clayton← Adson
88'
Wesley Gasolina← Robert
90+4'
David

Possession

50%Vasco

Shots

14Vasco

Pass accuracy

50%Vasco

Statistics

VascoCruzeiro
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots8
1.06Expected Goals (xG)0.21
5Corners5
11Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots8
4On Target2
7Off Target3
3Blocked3
8Inside Box1
6Outside Box7
Passing
50%Possession50%
373Total Passes387
276Accurate Passes292
74%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
1.18Goals Prevented1.18
Discipline
11Fouls11
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides3

Serie A: Vasco DA Gama 0–0 Cruzeiro

Vasco DA Gama and Cruzeiro drew 0-0 in Serie A on June 16, 2024.

Vasco DA Gama controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio São Januário in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.