Cruzeiro 1–0 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vasco DA Gama

Christian 65'

4/27/2025

Serie A · Round 6Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Cruzeiro46%

×Draw28%

Vasco DA Gama25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.88

Cruzeiro

1.30

Vasco DA Gama

0.88

Cruzeiro creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.35

creates per match

1.04

0.72

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.35

Vasco DA Gama

1.04

allows per match

Cruzeiro

0.72

Vasco DA Gama

1.25

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.09on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

75%

Cruzeiro or Vasco DA Gama

72%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

54%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

21%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

73%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

37%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

14%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

59%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

22%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

65%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.35 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.04 + Cruzeiro defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

46%

level

28%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

25%

Cruzeiro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Cassio

Cruzeiro · G

8.2

Match Events

65'

Christian↳ Kaio Jorge

75'

Paulinho Paula← Jair

75'

L. Augusto← N. Moreira

75'

B. Garre← Rayan

79'

Marquinhos← Wanderson

84'

Eduardo← Matheus Pereira

85'

J. Rodriguez← Paulo Henrique

88'

Alex Teixeira← Lucas Freitas

90+2'

Janderson← Fagner

90+2'

Y. Bolasie← Kaio Jorge

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroVasco

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots15

1.01Expected Goals (xG)0.81

4Corners8

18Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots15

4On Target6

7Off Target6

1Blocked3

9Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

323Total Passes426

261Accurate Passes363

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

0.07Goals Prevented0.07

Discipline

18Fouls12

1Offsides0