Cruzeiro 1–1 Vasco DA Gama: Result & Stats

Cruzeiro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Vasco DA Gama

Zé Ivaldo 59'

P. Vegetti 41'

9/29/2024

Serie A · Round 28Estádio Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Cruzeiro46%

×Draw28%

Vasco DA Gama25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CruzeiroExpected goals in this matchVasco DA Gama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

0.88

Cruzeiro

1.30

Vasco DA Gama

0.88

Cruzeiro creates 48% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.35

creates per match

1.04

0.72

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Cruzeiro

1.35

Vasco DA Gama

1.04

allows per match

Cruzeiro

0.72

Vasco DA Gama

1.25

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.09on par

Vasco DA Gama+0.34scores more

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

Vasco DA Gama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw

75%

Cruzeiro or Vasco DA Gama

72%

Draw or Vasco DA Gama

54%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+

21%

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals

73%

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

37%

Cruzeiro 3+ goals

14%

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

59%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

22%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)

65%

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Vasco DA Gama away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 1.35 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.04 + Cruzeiro defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cruzeiro scores more

46%

level

28%

Vasco DA Gama scores more

25%

Cruzeiro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Léo Jardim

Vasco DA Gama · G

8.2

Match Events

13'

J. Meneses← David

41'

P. Vegetti

46'

Á. Barreal← Gabriel Veron

59'

Zé Ivaldo↳ Á. Barreal

61'

J. Sforza← Hugo Moura

61'

Paulo Henrique← Philippe Coutinho

65'

João Victor

70'

F. Peralta← Mateus Vital

71'

Léo

78'

Mateus Carvalho

82'

P. Galdames← J. Meneses

83'

Emerson Rodríguez

88'

Ramiro← L. Romero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CruzeiroVasco

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots13

0.87Expected Goals (xG)1.18

11Corners4

7Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target4

8Off Target6

1Blocked3

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box9

Passing

56%Possession44%

447Total Passes352

371Accurate Passes283

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.28Goals Prevented0.28

Discipline

7Fouls6

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0