Vasco DA Gama 0–4 Criciuma: Result & Stats

Vasco DA Gama

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Criciuma

4/27/2024

Serie A · Round 4Estádio São Januário

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Vasco DA Gama39%

×Draw27%

Criciuma34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vasco DA GamaExpected goals in this matchCriciuma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.20

Vasco DA Gama

1.29

Criciuma

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 6 away

1.52

creates per match

1.22

1.18

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.52

Criciuma

1.22

allows per match

Vasco DA Gama

1.18

Criciuma

1.07

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Vasco DA Gama-0.05on par

Criciuma+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vasco DA Gama ↓

Criciuma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Vasco DA Gama or draw

66%

Vasco DA Gama or Criciuma

73%

Draw or Criciuma

61%

Winning margin

Vasco DA Gama wins by 2+

17%

Criciuma wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Vasco DA Gama 1+ goals

72%

Vasco DA Gama 2+ goals

37%

Vasco DA Gama 3+ goals

14%

Criciuma 1+ goals

70%

Criciuma 2+ goals

34%

Criciuma 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Vasco DA Gama (draw refunded)

53%

Criciuma (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vasco DA Gama at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.18 · 36 matches

Criciuma away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vasco DA Gama attack 1.52 + Criciuma defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Criciuma attack 1.22 + Vasco DA Gama defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Vasco DA Gama scores more

39%

level

27%

Criciuma scores more

34%

Vasco DA Gama at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vasco DA Gama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff